Myanmar Economic Outlook
An economy in crisis:
Myanmar’s economy, once considered a high-potential emerging market, has suffered from extreme instability since the military coup in 2021. The political crisis led to capital flight, international sanctions, and a collapse in investor confidence. GDP contracted sharply in 2021 and has struggled to recover, with widespread inflation, currency depreciation, and deteriorating living conditions.
Agriculture and natural resources dependency:Historically, Myanmar has relied on agriculture, gas exports, and resource extraction for economic growth. The country is rich in natural gas, jade, and timber, but mismanagement, corruption, and international restrictions have hampered development. Gas exports, particularly to China and Thailand, remain a crucial foreign exchange earner, though political uncertainty has discouraged further investment.
Sanctions and economic isolation:Western sanctions targeting the military regime have restricted trade and foreign investment. Many multinational companies, including major oil firms, have exited the country. This has forced Myanmar to rely increasingly on China and Russia for economic and diplomatic support. Banking sector instability, capital controls, and limited access to foreign currency have further damaged business confidence.
Myanmar’s economic outlook:Myanmar’s short-term economic prospects remain bleak, with continued political uncertainty, declining investment, and a worsening humanitarian crisis. While China-backed infrastructure projects could provide some support, economic recovery will depend on resolving the ongoing conflict and restoring investor confidence. Without a stable political environment, Myanmar risks prolonged economic decline and deepening poverty.
Myanmar's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 66.8 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 1,232 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 4.4% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 41% of overall GDP, manufacturing 26%, other industrial activity 13%, and agriculture 20%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 47% of GDP in 2022, government consumption 21%, fixed investment 32%, and net exports 0%.International trade
In 2021, manufactured products made up 44% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 24%, food 28%, ores and metals 1% and agricultural raw materials 2%, with other categories accounting for 1% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 54% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 33%, food 12%, ores and metals 1% and agricultural raw materials 0%, with other goods accounting for 0% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 9 billion in 2021, while total imports were USD 11 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 4.4% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Myanmar, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Myanmar's fiscal deficit averaged 3.5% of GDP in the decade to 2020. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 4.1% in the decade to 2020. For more information on Myanmar's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 5.8% in the decade to 2021. Go to our Myanmar inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Myanmar's monetary policy rate ended 2023 at 7.00%, down from 10.00% a decade earlier. See our Myanmar monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the kyat weakened by 50.8% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the kyat, click here.
Economic situation in Myanmar
Annual GDP growth has likely remained downbeat in fiscal year (FY) 2024 (April 2024–March 2025): The civil war and Typhoon Yagi—which hit in September—dealt a heavy blow to the economy, triggering power outages, labor shortages and weaker crop yields. The World Bank estimates food prices surged over 60% and fuel costs jumped 25% between April and September, straining household finances. Moreover, survey data suggests the manufacturing sector shrank in most months through February. In January, the military junta extended the state of emergency by six months, and President Trump froze most U.S. foreign aid, likely further weighing on the economy. More recently, Myanmar’s junta chief announced general elections for December 2025–January 2026, though they will likely be marred by violence, a dire economic situation and widespread political repression.Myanmar Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.36 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 8 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Myanmar in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 36 economic indicators for Myanmar from a panel of 8 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Myanmar economy. To download a sample report on the Myanmar's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.