Latin America Economic Outlook
Latin America’s economy is expected to grow more quickly next year compared to 2024 as inflation and interest rates ease. However, the region is likely to remain the slowest-growing emerging market due to political instability, high crime, corruption and limited high-value-added activities. The policies of the Trump administration are a key factor to watch.
Latin America Inflation
Inflation decreased in Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay and Uruguay from September to October, while it increased in Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru. Most economies will see lower average inflation in 2025 vs 2024 amid a decline in global commodity prices. That said, U.S. trade tariffs and faster-than-expected currency depreciation are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Latin America from 2010 to 2023.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP per Capita (USD) | 8,585 | 7,193 | 8,278 | 9,341 | 10,388 |
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 0.8 | -6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 2.3 |
| 1.5 | -7.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.6 | |
| -0.5 | -11.5 | 16.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | -1.5 | -6.7 | 7.8 | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 8.5 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 7.2 | 6.2 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -3.7 | -8.4 | -4.1 | -3.4 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 59.4 | 69.2 | 63.0 | 61.2 | - |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 7.6 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 15.5 | 18.3 |
| International Reserves (USD bn) | 838 | 876 | 913 | 854 | 888 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -2.0 | -0.1 | -1.8 | -2.3 | -1.2 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 1,039 | 949 | 1,215 | 1,414 | 1,389 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 9.61 | 5.84 | 9.54 | 18.92 | 20.18 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 1,031 | 864 | 1,180 | 1,432 | 1,339 |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 39.5 | 48.1 | 42.7 | 37.8 | 35.1 |