Central & Eastern Europe Economic Outlook
Regional GDP growth will improve from 2024’s projection in 2025 on a boom in investment, industrial activity and exports. That said, private spending will lose momentum amid elevated inflation and unemployment rates. Heavier-than-expected damage from Storm Boris is a downside risk, while stronger-than-anticipated EU demand and nearshoring efforts are upside risks.
Central & Eastern Europe Inflation
In September, inflation rose in the Czech Republic, Poland, Croatia and Latvia but declined elsewhere in the region. In 2025, inflation will hover near 2024’s projected rate, easing slightly from its prior 10-year average of 3.9%. Supply-chain shocks due to Storm Boris and unexpected currency depreciation are upside risks.
This chart displays Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) for Central & Eastern Europe from 2010 to 2023.
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (Real GDP, ann. var. %) | 4.0 | -3.3 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 |
| 3.5 | -3.5 | 6.4 | 4.3 | -0.3 | |
| 8.8 | -3.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 9.0 | |
| Industrial Production (ann. var. %) | 1.6 | -4.6 | 11.0 | 5.6 | -2.5 |
| Unemployment (% of active population, aop) | 4.6 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -1.0 | -6.8 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.7 |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 43.0 | 53.7 | 52.5 | 49.8 | 49.8 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 2.7 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 14.3 | 11.2 |
| Policy Interest Rate (%, eop) | 1.25 | 0.26 | 1.65 | 6.38 | 6.24 |