About FocusEconomics

Forecasting errors have two different components: bias (systematic deviation from the outcome, such as a tendency to be too optimistic) and noise (random scatter). Among professional forecasters such as the ones that we collaborate with, bias is negligible, but even the best forecasters exhibit noise and will not always hit the mark.

Our Consensus Forecasts minimize that noise. For instance, our panel of 68 forecasters for Eurozone GDP growth reduces noise by 88%, while our panel of 33 forecasters for Chile’s exchange rate reduces noise by 83%. 

These findings are in line with a large body of independent research that has shown that individual forecasters are unlikely to consistently beat the market. While some forecasters may outperform their peers in one year, none beats the consensus year after year and certainly not across all economic indicators. That means that relying on a single source of economic intelligence is risky. 

All business decisions involve risk. That being said, decision-makers strive to gather as much relevant information as possible before committing valuable resources for a long period of time. This is where FocusEconomics Consensus Forecasts offer advantages, by providing:

• More insight. Instead of relying on only a single source of economic intelligence, our tools provide the entire spectrum of market forecasts.
• Scenario planning. The high and low points of the forecasting range provide natural landmarks for scenario analysis instead of forcing planners to randomly pick values for worst-case and best-case scenarios.
• Irrefutable authority. FocusEconomics polls the world’s leading economists for their macroeconomic forecasts, making sure that business plans have a solid foundation that holds up against the scrutiny of even the most critical board member.

Other benefits of our client solutions include:

• Access to privileged information. Chances are you already have access to some of the sources included in our data service. You may be receiving reports from some banks or you may even have a subscription to a professional forecasting firm. However, with our service you get unlimited access to the combined forecasts of the world’s most renowned economic intelligence sources, including:
  • International investment banks with their globe-spanning research units, including Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, JPMorgan and UBS
  • Leading national financial powerhouses, such as Banco Itaú, Banco Santander, BBVA and Commerzbank
  • Rating agencies including Fitch Ratings, Moody’s and S&P Global Ratings (S&P)
  • Professional forecasting firms, such as Capital Economics, the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) and Oxford Economics
  • Think tanks and consultancies

• Complete coverage. In total, FocusEconomics compiles over 3,500,000 forecast data points.
• Rigorous quality control. We go well beyond just collecting the data. We filter, validate, process and analyze every projection we receive before making it available to our clients to ensure that you can fully rely on every single data point.
• Intelligent insight. Our in-house team of economists provides valuable written analysis on the state-of-play and outlook for commodities, countries and regions. Succinct bullets highlight key economic and political events, while additional coverage hones in on the most important economic indicators.
• Time-savings. Our reports have been designed for the busy executive from the ground up. Extensive use of summaries, bullets, tables and charts enable you to access the essential information in the shortest time possible.
• Unique Insight. Metrics based on forecasts from a multitude of market participants provide unique insight that is not available through conventional (single source) forecasts.
  • Level of uncertainty. The spread of the forecasts contains valuable insight into the risk associated with a forecast. A higher standard deviation indicates a higher level of uncertainty prevailing among forecasters, serving as an additional sign of caution.
  • Forecast trends. The evolution of forecast history allows for a quick and intuitive assessment of past and future developments.
  • Minimum and maximum forecasts provide insight into the values that are unlikely to be surpassed or undercut. As such, they provide useful landmarks for scenario analysis.

Clients can subscribe to daily or monthly forecast and data updates. For clients receiving monthly updates, our publication calendar shows the date on which forecasts for each country and commodity are updated. 

Our data is available in the following formats: PDF, Excel file with raw data, machine-readable flat files, API access to our database, and via our interactive online platform: FocusAnalytics. 

Forecasts for the coming 6 to 8 quarters are available in our publications and data solutions (this may vary slightly for certain countries or commodities).

The current calendar year is always the first year of forecasts. For example, in 2023, the first year of projections is for 2023.