Awards Methodology

The FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards are yearly awards that recognize the most accurate economic forecasters for the six key macroeconomic indicators (GDP, Fiscal Balance, Inflation, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Current Account) in more than 100 countries and for 21 commodities.

We assess the accuracy of the forecasts submitted to our Consensus Forecast survey by ranking forecasters according to the average of their forecast errors. Errors are defined as the absolute difference between an individual forecast and the actual result of the macroeconomic indicator/price of the commodity.

To identify the best forecasters, we analyze forecasts submitted to our monthly survey over the course of 22 months. For example, in assessing the forecast accuracy for 2023 GDP, we take into consideration forecasts collected between January 2022 and October 2023. The outturns we use as a comparison to the forecasts correspond to the first official estimates, the release of which varies according to the frequency of the indicator.

The absolute error (absolute difference between the individual forecast and the outturn of the price) is not discounted. Therefore, an error at the beginning of our forecasting cycle (January 2022) has the same weight as an error at the end of the cycle (October 2023).

Finally, panelists are ranked according to the average of the absolute errors over the last 22 months: The highest ranked analyst is the one with the lowest average error. In case of equal scores panelists will be ranked based on the number of submissions.

To be considered for the award, the panelist must have submitted a minimum number of forecasts over the given period.

We calculate forecast accuracy rankings for six main macroeconomic indicators (GDP, Fiscal Balance, Inflation, Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Current Account) in more than 100 countries. In addition to giving awards for each specific macroeconomic indicator mentioned above, we also provide a general ranking of the forecasts for the country, which is estimated by calculating weighted average ranking across all the indicators, with GDP and inflation assigned slightly greater weight than the remaining indicators.

Methodology for commodities

FocusEconomics is pleased to announce the winners of the 2024 Commodities Analyst Forecast Awards. The awards recognize the most accurate forecasters for 21 commodity prices in 2023. Details of the awards and the list of winners are available at: www.focus-economics.com/awards.

To identify the top economic forecasters, FocusEconomics assessed the accuracy of the commodity prices forecasts submitted by over 50 institutions to its Consensus Forecast survey over the course of 22 months. Among the winning institutions are the world’s most renowned global forecasting firms, with Capital Economics, RBC Capital Markets, Citigroup Global Mkts and E2 Economia topping the list with 3 first-place rankings.

FocusEconomics warmly congratulates the winning analysts for their high-quality research and for having provided the most accurate forecasts.

“The FocusEconomics Analyst Forecast Awards celebrate the exceptional contributions of over 1,500 esteemed economists worldwide on our panel, who produce and update reliable economic forecasts annually. We are thrilled to acknowledge the institutions that excel in providing the most accurate forecasts for the key commodities within our Consensus Forecast,” said Arne Pohlman, Chief Economist and Managing Director at FocusEconomics.

Note on the methodology for commodities

To identify the best forecasters of commodity prices, we use price forecasts submitted to our monthly survey for 21 commodities over the course of 22 months compared to the resulting average-of-year commodity price.

Finally, panelists are ranked according to the average of the absolute errors over the last 22 months: The highest ranked analyst is the one with the lowest average error. In the case of equal scores, panelists are ranked based on the number of submissions.

Additionally, we are excited to announce the addition of a new category in this year’s Commodities Analyst Forecast Awards: Overall category. It aims to recognize and highlight the outstanding contributions of panelists who have demonstrated a comprehensive understanding and forecasting proficiency across a diverse range of commodities.

To qualify for this category, panelists must have provided forecasts for at least three out of the four different commodities groups, which include base metals, precious metals, agricultural, and energy commodity prices.