In 2024, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE joined the BRICS. As a result, the bloc now makes up nearly a third of the world’s GDP at market prices in USD. To dive deeper into the long-term outlook of the bloc as a whole and of each individual country, you can download our latest special report, which includes easy-to-read summaries and graphs of our key Consensus Forecasts up to 2030.
Which BRICS economy will be the fastest-growing through to 2030?
BRICS economies will remain heterogenous, with marked differences in their stage and pace of development, and in economic size and structure. India, Egypt and Ethiopia will grow at the fastest rates, boosted by great catch-up potential; China will benefit from its high-tech manufacturing sector; and non-oil diversification strategies will buttress activity in Saudi Arabia and the UAE. In contrast, Brazil, Iran, Russia and South Africa are set to grow at underwhelming clips due to lackluster progress on structural reforms.
Is the BRICS bloc built on shaky foundations?
In recent years, trade and investment within the BRICS bloc has risen considerably, but formal structures and multilateral agreements remain scarce. This situation is set to persist after the recent expansion. BRICS membership will facilitate bilateral agreements—especially with China, a key trading partner of most members and an active international investor. That said, the organization’s institutional foundation will remain shaky and multilateral agreements are unlikely to gain traction.
Will the BRICS succeed in reducing their use of the U.S. dollar?
De-dollarization of the global financial system will be a long-term goal of the bloc amid Western economic sanctions on several members. For example, Saudi Arabia and the UAE might face rising pressures to sell oil to China and India in renminbi and rupees, respectively, and trade in general is set to be increasingly carried out in the bloc’s currencies. Nonetheless, a common BRICS currency remains practically impossible given the Gulf countries’ heavy links with the West and the USD, large economic disparities among members, and the strength of the Western financial system.
Insight from our analyst network
On the future of the bloc, EIU analysts commented:
“Expansion will bolster the BRICS geopolitical significance—provided the group can reconcile its internal tensions—and its combined economic muscle, but the direct economic impact will be small. The BRICS group is unlikely to become a solid geopolitical and economic construction, regardless of how many bricks are added to the wall.”
On de-dollarization prospects, ING analysts said:
“Despite some pressure, the USD remains the preferential currency for trade. A greater role of BRICS and other emerging markets in global trade may create more natural demand for alternatives to USD, but this has not happened so far. The higher share of CNY in trade invoicing doesn’t seem to be dethroning USD, but rather pushing out second tier developed market FX, such as GBP. One direction in which USD could be challenged given the geopolitical confrontation is the higher focus of BRICS trade on other emerging market economies.”
Our latest analysis
China’s GDP growth fell to an over one-year low in Q2, raising calls for more stimulus.
Saudi Arabia’s oil production declined again in June, as OPEC+ output cuts continued to bite.
Special Report: BRICS 2030
Download this fresh special report on the long-term outlook for the BRICS economies:
