Understanding the quickest-growing economies
Upon examining the top 10 fastest-growing economies according to our Consensus forecasts, several common trends emerge. Most nations will be in Africa—particularly sub-Saharan Africa—highlighting how a continent once synonymous in the West with poverty and famine is now increasingly a source of economic dynamism. Only two will be in the Asia-Pacific and one in the Americas. Most nations in the top 10 remain poor in GDP per capita terms. This should come as no surprise, as fast GDP growth is easiest when a country’s stock of human and physical capital is low. When looking at the key growth drivers across countries, one in particular stands out: Increased natural resource extraction, especially of hydrocarbons. This driver underpins our panelists’ forecasts for Guyana and most of the African economies featured in the top ten. Recovery from armed conflict is another recurring theme: In South Sudan and Libya, economic fallout from recent conflicts has created a favorable base effect for 2025 GDP growth. That said, the threat of future violence remains a key downside risk to the economic outlook for these and several other countries in this list.
Fastest growing economy in the world
1. Guyana: 16.3%
Guyana’s GDP growth will be the fastest in the world in 2025 according to our Consensus Forecast. An oil bonanza is behind the favorable projections: Oil production rose from virtually zero in 2019 to over 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) by late 2024 as new projects came online, and is expected to rise to nearly 900,000 by the end of this year. The ensuing boom in fiscal revenue will fuel the public spending required to meet the country’s development needs. That said, there are numerous risks to the outlook. The burgeoning energy sector could lead to cronyism and weaken institutions, as well as divert resources away from manufacturing and services. Ethnic tensions and protests are further clouds on the horizon. Tensions with unstable neighbor Venezuela are an additional risk, with Venezuelan President Maduro threatening to annex Guyana’s oil-rich Essequibo region.
Remaining top-ten countries with the highest economic growth
2. South Sudan: 14.6%
South Sudan’s GDP growth will be the world’s second-highest this year. But while the projection looks impressive, it is purely the result of a highly favorable base of comparison; the economy is projected to have shrunk over 20% in 2024 due to spillovers from the war in neighboring Sudan. The war has caused supply disruptions and damaged a pipeline carrying over two-thirds of South Sudanese oil, leading exports to tumble and inflation to skyrocket. The bounce-back in gross domestic product this year is dependent on the resumption of oil flows via the pipeline to Sudan, which should occur in Q1. An intensification of conflict in Sudan, disruptions in Red Sea trade and extreme climate events are downside risks.
3. Libya: 10.3%
In a somewhat similar fashion to South Sudan, Libya’s double-digit economic growth projection for 2025 is partly the result of a favorable base of comparison. The country has been riven by armed conflict and political instability since civil war broke out in 2011—it still has two competing governments controlling separate areas of the country—and then had to contend with the fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic. As such, Libya’s GDP is still around a third smaller than before the civil war, providing ample scope for catch-up growth. Most recently, oil production—which constitutes most of GDP—was partly suspended for some months last year due to a power struggle over the leadership of the Central Bank. The resolution of the crisis and the ramp-up of oil production will boost Libya’s economy in 2025; fluctuations in oil prices and the volatile security situation are the key risks.
4. Palau: 8.5%
A Pacific Ocean archipelago of a mere 18,000 inhabitants, Palau’s GDP suffered a severe downturn during the pandemic due to the collapse of the crucial tourism industry, which constitutes about 40% of GDP. Economic activity contracted from 2020–2022, before growth resumed in 2023 and 2024. An ongoing recovery in tourist arrivals—which are still well below pre-pandemic levels—should underpin the economy in 2025, together with stronger construction activity. However, the economy will likely remain smaller than it was before the pandemic.
5. Niger: 8.3%
Niger’s real GDP growth will be driven primarily by the expansion of oil production and exports through the Niger-Benin pipeline. This surge in the oil sector is expected to create widespread positive ripple effects throughout the economy, enhancing government spending and stimulating various industries. Alongside this, the country should see improvements in agricultural output due to an expansion in irrigated land. That said, the withdrawal from the ECOWAS regional trading bloc could hamper the external sector, while climate change, attacks by jihadi groups and socio-political instability are significant downside risks. The latter is particularly acute given that the country suffered a coup in 2023 which led neighbors to temporarily impose sanctions. Finally, the timing of the reopening of the border to Benin is a key factor to watch.
6. Senegal: 7.9%
As in several of the other 10 fastest-growing economies, Senegal’s economy will be driven by the extractive sector in 2025. The country began producing oil in June last year, with initial production levels expected to reach 100,000 barrels per day. Moreover, gas production commenced in January this year from a field shared with Mauritania, with an initial capacity of slightly over 2 million tonnes of liquified natural gas per year. These developments should spur 2025 GDP growth to the fastest rate since the early 1980s. Socio-political unrest and a delayed ramp-up of energy production are the key outlook risks.
7. Rwanda: 6.8%
Rwanda’s GDP has boomed in recent decades, with GDP per capita rising more than tenfold since the end of the genocide in the mid-1990s. The country’s stable political environment, lack of corruption, and strong state-led development plan have all aided growth. Our panelists expect GDP growth this year to be broad-based, with large expansions in private spending, fixed investment and exports. Government spending will grow at a comparatively modest rate due to some fiscal consolidation following an election-related spending boost in 2024. The authorities will continue to focus on their “Made in Rwanda” initiative designed to boost domestic manufacturing, as well as large infrastructure projects such as a new international airport that the government hopes will become a continental travel hub.
8. Ethiopia: 6.7%
Ethiopia’s GDP growth will be spurred this year by structural reforms and billions of dollars in support from international partners such as the IMF and World Bank. Having liberalized the exchange rate in mid-2024, the government’s policy focus is now on boosting domestic revenues, reforming state-owned enterprises and restructuring debt. That said, elevated inflation and tight financial conditions—partly the result of sharp currency depreciation following the move to a floating exchange-rate regime—will cap economic activity. Moreover, a delay to agreeing debt restructuring terms, the possible end of a fragile peace deal in the Tigray region and active insurgencies in the Amhara and Oromia regions present major risks to the outlook.
9. India: 6.5%
Our Consensus is for industry and services to be the key drivers for India’s GDP growth this year, with agriculture to expand at a comparatively moderate rate. India will benefit from its burgeoning, young population, manufacturing investment by international firms looking to pivot away from China, interest rate cuts by the Central Bank, and moderating inflation. This will mark a continuation of the country’s impressive growth trajectory since the early 1990s. GDP per capita is around seven times higher than it was then, with India now among the top-ten largest economies globally. A flare-up in border disputes with China plus rising global trade tensions are depreciatory risks.
10. Cote D’Ivoire: 6.5%
The Cote D’Ivoire’s GDP growth will be underpinned in 2025 by multiple drivers. The Baleine oil field should come fully onstream, boosting exports and fiscal revenues. The recent opening of a new gold mine should further support the external sector, as should improved weather conditions lifting cocoa output, which saw a steep decline in the most recent season due to poor weather. Finally, looser monetary policy from the Central Bank of West African States—which has a currency peg to the euro—will aid domestic demand. Islamist attacks, further power outages and social unrest pose downside risks to the outlook.
Future Projections for the Countries with the Highest GDP Growth
Looking beyond 2025, most of the 10 economies mentioned above should maintain strong economic growth rates of over 5% per annum, spurred by infrastructure investment, rising populations and further gains in the extractive sector—in particular the oil industry. That said, Palau’s growth will slip below 2% as tourism arrivals normalize. The economies of Libya and South Sudan will also slow sharply as easy catch-up growth following damage from past armed conflicts fades.
Originally published in December 2017, updated in January 2025