The report comprises commodity price projections by quarter for 2 years out and annual forecasts for 5 years out, including details on each analysts’ projections and the Consensus Forecast, as well as maximum and minimum forecasts. It includes price outlook and written analysis for 33 commodities across 4 categories:
- ENERGY: Brent Crude Oil, WTI Crude Oil, Coking Coal, Ethanol, Gasoil (European market), Gasoline (U.S. benchmark), Natural Gas, Thermal Coal, Uranium
- INDUSTRIAL METALS: Alumina, Aluminium, Aluminium Alloy, Copper, Iron Ore, Lead, Nickel, Steel (European and U.S. markets), Tin, Zinc
- PRECIOUS METALS: Gold, Silver, Palladium, Platinum
- AGRICULTURAL: Cocoa, Coffee, Corn, Cotton, Oats, Soybeans, Sugar, Wheat, Wool
According to the inaugural edition of the report, on 12 February, Brent Crude Oil prices were down 16.7% from the beginning of the year, while an annual comparison showed that prices had fallen 45.6%.
“The renewed drop in global oil prices resulted from increasing concerns among investors that global economic growth continues to show signs of weakness, particularly due to a substantial deceleration in key emerging economies. China’s economy has hit the lowest growth rate in a generation, and this will further limit demand for oil,” said Ricardo Aceves, Senior Economist at FocusEconomics.
Economists surveyed this month consider that, on average, oil prices will start to increase in the second half of the year. This month’s Consensus Forecast projects prices to average USD 49.4 per barrel in Q4 2016. Analysts see prices rising further and averaging USD 58.3 per barrel in Q4 2017.
Download the inaugural edition of the FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast Commodities report.