Norway Economic Outlook
An oil-rich, high-income economy:
Norway has one of the highest GDP per capita figures in the world, thanks in large part to its vast oil and gas reserves. The country is Western Europe’s largest oil producer, with revenues from hydrocarbons fueling a large sovereign wealth fund, the Government Pension Fund Global—the largest of its kind. This financial cushion allows Norway to maintain high public spending and economic stability.
Renewable energy and diversification efforts:While oil and gas remain dominant, Norway is investing heavily in renewable energy, particularly hydropower and offshore wind. The country has ambitious decarbonization goals, positioning itself as a leader in green energy solutions. However, reducing dependence on fossil fuels while maintaining economic growth remains a challenge.
Strong social welfare and labor market:Norway’s labor market is among the most stable in Europe, with high wages, strong worker protections, and low unemployment. The generous welfare system provides healthcare, education, and pensions, ensuring a high quality of life. However, demographic shifts and an aging population will require fiscal adjustments in the future.
Norway’s economic outlook:Norway’s economic prospects are positive, supported by energy exports, green technology investments, and prudent fiscal management. However, reliance on oil revenues poses long-term risks as global energy markets shift toward renewables. Continued investment in technology, sustainable industries, and workforce development will be essential to Norway’s future economic resilience.
Norway's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 483 billion in 2024.
Nominal GDP of USD 483 billion in 2024.
GDP per capita of USD 86,790 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
GDP per capita of USD 86,790 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 1.6% over the last decade.
Average real GDP growth of 1.6% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 50% of overall GDP, manufacturing 6%, other industrial activity 42%, and agriculture 2%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 38% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 22%, fixed investment 26%, and net exports 14%.International trade
In 2021, manufactured products made up 14% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 67%, food 9%, ores and metals 6% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other categories accounting for 3% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 75% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 6%, food 10%, ores and metals 6% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other goods accounting for 2% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 276 billion in 2022, while total imports were USD 106 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 1.6% in the decade to 2024. To read more about GDP growth in Norway, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Norway's fiscal surplus averaged 8.9% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 4.0% in the decade to 2024. For more information on Norway's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 3.1% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Norway inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Norway's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 4.50%, up from 1.25% a decade earlier. See our Norway monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the krone weakened by 34.2% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the krone, click here.
Economic situation in Norway
Our Consensus is for the economy to have rebounded quarter on quarter in Q1 2025, ending a short-lived technical recession. Most available data bears out this projection, although downside risks remain. Year-on-year house price growth accelerated in January–February from Q4, boding well for household wealth. This, coupled with consumer sentiment improving for the eighth consecutive quarter and hitting a three-year high in Q1, likely led to the higher monthly growth in retail sales seen in January–February, suggesting private consumption will have been robust so far in Q1 despite higher price pressures in the same two-month period. Less positively, an uptick in core inflation in February surprised Norges Bank, which forced it to postpone the long-awaited kickoff of its loosening cycle. Moreover, monthly industrial output sharply deteriorated from Q4 in January.Norway Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.45 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 24 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Norway in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 45 economic indicators for Norway from a panel of 24 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Norway economy. To download a sample report on the Norway's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.