Angola: Angolan oil output rises in July
Brent crude oil prices averaged USD 84.05 per barrel in July, up 1.4% from June. On 31 July, the commodity traded at USD 80.64 per barrel, down 6.7% from 28 June. Prices rose to a three-month high in July, as supply was constrained by OPEC+ cuts, and demand prospects were boosted by lower-than-expected U.S. inflation.
On the production front, Angolan oil output jumped to 1.18 million barrels per day (mbpd) in July from 1.16 mbpd in June, marking the joint-highest reading since June 2022. June’s reading smashed national oil firm ANPG’s expectations of 1.13 mbpd.
Our panelists expect oil production to average below both July’s level and the prior 10-year average of 1.44 mbpd during 2024 as a whole; a less favorable base of comparison in H2 and the impact of maturing oil fields will drag on production by end-2024. That said, our panelists have continued to upgrade their 2024 forecasts: Output is set to rise from 2023’s slump to 1.12 mbpd. Angola’s exit from OPEC at end-2023 has been driving increased investor interest in the hydrocarbons sector, translating into a protracted, but steady, recovery. Moreover, production is benefiting from the continued implementation of the government’s 2020-2025 Hydrogen Exploration strategy.
Oxford Economics’ Gerrit van Rooyen commented:
“Oil production has continued a modest rebound – a trend we expect to persist in H2 2024 and drive economic growth. The recovery follows the conclusion of planned maintenance at the Dalia oilfield in Q1 2023 and Angola’s exit from Opec. Notwithstanding some losses at older oil wells, we believe overall oil output will also benefit from the addition of a new oil well in late 2024.”