Angola: Cabinda prices slide in March
The average price for Cabinda oil dropped to USD 79.5 per barrel (pb) in March from February’s 83.5 pb. This marked a 4.8% decline month on month. Meanwhile, prices were down 34.3% year on year, reflecting last year’s large increase in prices at the outset of the war in Ukraine.
Oil prices declined in March, dented by global headwinds stemming from financial turmoil in the U.S. and the Eurozone. Several bankruptcies among high-profile banks spurred fears of a financial crisis and ultimately took a toll on demand for crude.
Turning to production, Cabinda oil output declined to 0.95 million barrels per day (mbpd) in March, down from February’s 1.05 mbpd. Maintenance work at offshore oil field Dalia continued to hamper crude output during the month. Average production among other OPEC+ members trended downward; output was unchanged in Iran, increased in Saudi Arabia, and declined in Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE.
Global oil prices are forecast to increase this year but are still seen below the levels recorded at the outset of the war in Ukraine. The reopening of the Chinese economy will buttress demand and will likely offset the negative impact of a global economic slowdown. On the supply side, on 2 April, OPEC+ announced new quotas effective from May onwards, which will exert upward pressures on crude prices. Key factors to watch are the health of the global economy, the evolution of OPEC+ cuts and sanctions on Russia, and the output levels of other oil producers. Turning to output, our panelists see Angolan oil production slightly below last year’s levels.