Argentina: Economic activity falls at sharpest pace since August 2020 in March
The monthly indicator for economic activity (EMAE) plunged 8.4% compared to the same month a year earlier in March, which was a deterioration from February’s 3.0% decrease. The outturn marked the worst reading since August 2020. March’s notable deterioration reflected steeper drops in the manufacturing and construction sectors. However, the agricultural sector rose at a faster pace.
On a monthly basis, economic activity fell 1.4% in March, which was below February’s flat reading. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of economic activity coming in at minus 3.1% in March, down from February’s minus 2.3%.
Commenting on the outlook, Itaú Unibanco’s Andrés Pérez M., Diego Ciongo and Soledad Castagna stated:
“The adjustment in Argentina marches on, with sharper declines in economic activity taking place as nominal variables have also adjusted faster than expected. As a result, our 2024 GDP call for a contraction of 3.0% has downside risks, despite the normalization of the agriculture sector.”