Australia: Unemployment rate rises in June
Seasonally adjusted unemployment ticked up to 4.1% in June, slightly worsening from the 4.0% registered in May and in line with market expectations. On the other hand, seasonally adjusted employment increased by 50,200 in June, improving from the 39,700 increase recorded in May. The uptick stemmed from a rebound in part-time employment and a stronger increase in full-time employment compared to the prior month. Moreover, in seasonally adjusted terms, the labor-force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 66.9%—just below the record figure of 67.0% noted in November 2023—and the underemployment rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 6.5%.
Commenting on the outlook, Nomura analysts Andrew Ticehurst and David Seif stated:
“Our expectation is that trend employment growth should be starting to cool by now, and lead indicators continue to suggest that this will happen over the next few months. An expected gradual easing in the pace of migration growth should also be associated with a slower pace of job growth, looking ahead. However, the data to date are refusing to play ball with historical norms, perhaps again highlighting that we are still moving through an unusual economic cycle following Covid.”