Belgium: Economic growth ticks down in Q3
GDP growth remains subdued: According to a preliminary estimate, GDP growth ticked down to 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis in Q3, slightly below Q2’s 0.3% and marking the softest rise since Q4 2020. On an annual basis, economic growth rose to 1.1% in Q3 compared to the previous period’s 0.9% increase, marking the strongest expansion since Q2 2023.
Flat construction activity drives moderation: Early estimates suggest that the quarterly moderation was largely due to stagnation in the construction sector, marking a deterioration from Q2’s 1.1% rise. Meanwhile, growth in the services sector was stable from the prior quarter at 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis. More positively, the decline in industrial activity softened to 0.1% (Q2: -0.3% qoq s.a.).
GDP growth outlook is broadly stable: Quarterly GDP growth is projected to remain near Q3’s level until Q4 2025. As a result, next year’s full-year expansion will broadly match 2024’s forecast level. Stronger rises in private spending and investment plus a rebound in exports should broadly offset decelerating public spending. Weaker-than-expected EU growth is a downside risk.