Chile: Economic activity growth eases to six-month low in June
Economic activity increased 0.1% in year-on-year terms in June, which was a deterioration from May’s 1.1% increase and undershot market expectations. The figure marked the weakest reading since December 2023. June’s weakening was driven by worse readings for the mining and non-mining sectors. That said, some temporary factors were at play: The early winter vacation, the reduced number of working days relative to June 2023, and the suspension of classes in certain regions as a result of heavy rainfall all weighed on momentum.
On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, economic activity rebounded, rising 0.3% in June (May: -0.4% mom). Meanwhile, annual average growth of economic activity was 1.2% in June, matching May’s result.
The June data meant that economic activity rose just 1.6% year on year in Q2 as a whole, and contracted sharply in the quarter in sequential terms.
On the data and outlook, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“The disappointment in June’s IMACEC was mainly due to transitory factors yet should be viewed in the light of the overall loss of momentum during 2Q. The reversal of transitory factors in July, and signs that activity dynamics at the margin may be gradually recovering should support an improvement. Nevertheless, we will revise our 2024 growth forecast down this year.”