China: Merchandise exports gain steam in June
Merchandise exports rose 8.6% year-on-year in June (May: +7.6% year-on-year). June’s result marked the fastest expansion since March 2023, and was above market expectations. Growth of cars, ships and electronics were key drivers of the expansion. Meanwhile, merchandise imports fell 2.3% over the same month last year in June (May: +1.8% yoy), reflecting subdued domestic demand.
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 99.0 billion surplus in June (May 2024: USD 82.6 billion surplus; June 2023: USD 69.6 billion surplus). This marked a record-high trade surplus. Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 857.6 billion surplus in June, compared to the USD 828.2 billion surplus in May.
Merchandise exports should rise in 2024 as a whole relative to 2023, though the rebound will be held back by Western trade and tech restrictions on Chinese products, and overcapacity in some Chinese export sectors weighing on export prices.