Egypt: Inflation comes in at near five-year high in November
Inflation increased to 18.8% in November from Octobers 16.2%, moving further above the upper bound of the Central Banks 5.0–9.0% target band—where it has been for the past nine months. November’s reading was the highest inflation rate since December 2017. Looking at the details of the release, prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose at a faster pace in November; food inflation accelerated to a five-year high of nearly 30%. The sudden sharp acceleration was driven, in no small part, by the Central Banks decision on 27 October to allow the Egyptian pound to depreciate steeply to secure the sought-after deal with the IMF.
Consequently, the trend pointed up; annual average inflation rose to 12.6% in November (October: 11.5%). Meanwhile, core inflation rose to 21.5% in November, from the previous month’s 19.0%. Novembers result marked the sharpest rate in five years.
Lastly, consumer prices increased 2.28% from the previous month in November, moderating from October’s 2.56% rise.
Our panelists see inflation averaging 12.4% in CY 2023, which is up 1.0 percentage points from last months forecast, and 8.5% in CY 2024.