Greece Economic Outlook
Recovery from crisis:
Greece has undergone a significant economic recovery following the debt crisis of the 2010s. Structural reforms, improved public finances, and a booming tourism sector have helped economic conditions in Greece to improve markedly in recent years. However, public debt remains among the highest in the EU, and Greece still faces challenges in attracting long-term investment.
Tourism and shipping dominance:Tourism remains a cornerstone of the Greek economy, accounting for around 20% of GDP. The country’s picturesque islands, historical sites, and Mediterranean climate attract millions of visitors annually. Additionally, Greece is a global leader in shipping, with its merchant fleet being one of the largest in the world. These industries provide significant foreign exchange earnings but make the economy vulnerable to external shocks such as economic downturns or geopolitical instability.
Structural weaknesses:Despite recent progress, Greece continues to struggle with high unemployment, bureaucracy, and slow judicial processes, which deter business investment. The banking sector, while improved, still faces challenges related to non-performing loans. Meanwhile, wages remain relatively low compared to other EU countries, which has led to a brain drain as young professionals seek better opportunities abroad.
Greece’s economic outlook:Greece is expected to maintain moderate growth, driven by tourism, shipping, and increased investment from EU recovery funds. However, high public debt and slow-moving reforms will continue to weigh on economic prospects. Improving competitiveness, diversifying the economy, and ensuring fiscal discipline will be crucial for Greece to sustain its economic recovery in the coming years.
Greece's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 243 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 23,380 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 1% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 68% of overall GDP, manufacturing 9%, other industrial activity 19%, and agriculture 4%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 68% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 20%, fixed investment 17%, and net exports -5%.International trade
In 2021, manufactured products made up 36% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 32%, food 20%, ores and metals 8% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other categories accounting for 3% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 52% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 28%, food 12%, ores and metals 4% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other goods accounting for 3% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 54 billion in 2023, while total imports were USD 90 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 1.0% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Greece, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Greece's fiscal deficit averaged 3.7% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 18.3% in the decade to 2024. For more information on Greece's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 1.4% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Greece inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Euro Area monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 3.15%, up from 0.05% a decade earlier. See our Greece monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the euro weakened by 20% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the euro, click here.
Economic situation in Greece
Sequential GDP growth rose to 0.9% in Q4 from Q3’s 0.4% due to rebounds in public spending and fixed investment. Additionally, export growth ticked up. On the flip side, private spending swung into contraction. Turning to Q1, the economy kicked into a lower gear, according to our Consensus. That said, the data at hand points to upside risks to this forecast. Economic sentiment improved from Q4 in Q1. Moreover, goods exports and industrial output were above Q4’s average in January. Meanwhile, in March, both DBRS Morningstar and Moody’s upgraded the country’s credit rating, citing healthier public finances. In politics, the Prime Minister reshuffled his cabinet in March, making appointments to increase the government’s external expertise and harden its stance on immigration; the move likely seeks to boost public support following protests on the anniversary of the Tempi train crash.Greece Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.50 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 23 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Greece in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 50 economic indicators for Greece from a panel of 23 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Greece economy. To download a sample report on the Greece's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.