Iceland

Iceland Economic Data & Projections

Iceland's Macroeconomic Analysis:

Nominal GDP of USD 31.3 billion in 2023.

Nominal GDP of USD 28.1 billion in 2022.

GDP per capita of USD 74,609 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

GDP per capita of USD 80,732 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.

Average real GDP growth of 3.7% over the last decade.

Average real GDP growth of 3% over the last decade.

Share of the region's population
Share of the region's GDP

Sector Analysis

In 2020, services accounted for 76% of overall GDP, manufacturing 9%, other industrial activity 11%, and agriculture 4%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 52% of GDP in 2021, government consumption 27%, fixed investment 23%, and net exports -2%.

GDP by economic sector
GDP by type of expenditure

International trade

In 2021, manufactured products made up 12% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 1%, food 46%, ores and metals 40% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other categories accounting for 0% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 70% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 8%, food 11%, ores and metals 10% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other goods accounting for 0% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 7 billion in 2023, while total imports were USD 9 billion.

Key exports
Key imports
Key export partners
Key import partners

Main Economic Indicators

Economic growth

The economy recorded average annual growth of 3.0% in the decade to 2022. To read more about GDP growth in Iceland, go to our dedicated page.

Fiscal policy

Iceland's fiscal deficit averaged 1.1% of GDP in the decade to 2022. Find out more on our dedicated page.

Unemployment

The unemployment rate averaged 4.7% in the decade to 2022. For more information on Iceland's unemployment click here.

Inflation

Inflation averaged 3.4% in the decade to 2022. Go to our Iceland inflation page for extra insight.

Monetary Policy

Iceland's monetary policy rate ended 2022 at 6.00%, up from 5.38% a decade earlier. See our Iceland monetary policy page for additional details.

Exchange Rate

From end-2012 to end-2022 the krona weakened by 10.1% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the krona, click here.

Economic situation in Iceland

Seasonally adjusted GDP rebounded year on year in Q3, growing 1.0% and reversing a 0.3% contraction in Q2. That said, on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP contracted 1.1%, deteriorating from Q2’s 1.5% rise. The annual rebound was driven by private consumption returning to growth and public spending growth accelerating. Conversely, fixed investment growth decelerated and exports fell at a faster pace than in Q2. Moving to Q4, available data is optimistic. Hotel stays rose year on year in October, improving from Q3’s decline. Moreover, headline and core inflation receded in October–November from Q3 and the Central Bank kicked off its loosening cycle in October and accelerated rate cuts in November, boding well for business and consumer sentiment. In politics, the Social Democrats won the 30 November snap parliamentary elections; however, they did not attain a legislative majority, meaning the prime minister won’t likely be chosen for some time.

Iceland Economic Forecasts

Projections out to 2034.

31 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.

Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 9 expert analysts.

Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Iceland in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 31 economic indicators for Iceland from a panel of 9 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Iceland economy. To download a sample report on the Iceland's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.

Iceland Economic Indicators

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Population (million) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
GDP (USD bn) 24.7 21.6 25.8 28.8 31.3
GDP per capita (USD) 70,711 61,123 72,143 78,790 83,531
GDP (EUR bn) 22.0 19.0 21.8 27.3 29.0
GDP per capita (EUR) 63,177 53,540 61,012 74,921 77,253
GDP (ISK bn) 3,026 2,929 3,280 3,892 4,321
Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) 6.4 -3.2 12.0 18.7 11.0
Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) 1.9 -6.9 5.3 9.0 5.0
Private Consumption (ann. var. %) 1.7 -3.1 6.9 8.3 0.6
Government Consumption (ann. var. %) 3.9 5.2 2.3 2.4 1.8
Fixed Investment (ann. var. %) -4.1 -7.4 14.3 15.7 1.7
Exports (G&S, ann. var. %) -5.3 -30.7 14.8 22.1 6.3
Imports (G&S, ann. var. %) -9.1 -20.6 19.9 20.0 -1.1
Unemployment (% of active population, aop) 3.9 6.4 6.0 3.8 3.4
Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1.6 -8.9 -8.3 -4.0 -2.0
Public Debt (% of GDP) 66.5 77.5 74.8 67.4 62.2
Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) 3.0 2.8 4.4 8.3 8.7
Key Interest Rate (% eop) 3.00 0.75 2.00 6.00 9.25
Exchange Rate (ISK per USD, eop) 121 127 130 143 136
Exchange Rate (ISK per USD, aop) 123 135 127 135 138
Exchange Rate (ISK per EUR, eop) 136 156 148 152 150
Exchange Rate (ISK per EUR, aop) 137 155 150 142 149
Current Account Balance (EUR bn) 1.4 0.2 -0.6 -0.6 0.3
Current Account Balance (% of GDP) 6.5 1.1 -2.6 -2.1 1.1
Merchandise Trade Balance (EUR bn) -0.8 -0.6 -0.9 -1.4 -2.0
Foreign Direct Investment (EUR bn) -0.2 -0.8 0.4 0.8 0.9
Free Sample Report

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