Indonesia: Merchandise exports decline in November
Merchandise exports contracted 8.8% annually in November, on the heels of October’s 10.3% fall. The result marked the smallest contraction since May 2023. Meanwhile, merchandise imports expanded 3.1% on an annual basis in November (October: -4.9% yoy), marking the strongest reading since May 2023.
As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 3.4 billion surplus in November (October 2023: USD 4.7 billion surplus; November 2022: USD 6.1 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed down, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 48.3 billion surplus in November, compared to the USD 51.0 billion surplus in October.
UOB analysts Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Agus Santoso commented on the outlook:
“Going forward, we expect signs of China’s economic recovery as reflected by the improving manufacturing PMI index and higher-than-expected imports to deliver some upside to demand for Indonesia’s exports. […] However, we do not exclude the possibility that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East could widen and dampen international trade activity and delay the ongoing recovery.”