Indonesia: Merchandise exports drop at a sharper pace in January
Merchandise exports contracted 7.8% on an annual basis in January, following December’s 7.7% drop. Meanwhile, merchandise imports increased 3.0% in annual terms in January (December: -6.8% yoy).
As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 2.6 billion surplus in January (December 2024: USD 3.9 billion surplus; January 2023: USD 4.9 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend pointed down, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 45.4 billion surplus in January, compared to the USD 47.6 billion surplus in December.
United Overseas Bank analysts Enrico Tanuwidjaja and Agus Santoso commented on the outlook:
“We expect Indonesia to post higher trade surplus this year on the back of multiple factors including improving demand from key trading partners and the potential for higher prices of several commodities including CPO and base metals. In addition, the operation of several smelters related to nickel, bauxite, and copper commodities in 2H24 will provide some upside to base metals exports this year. Nonetheless, we remain cautious of the uncertainty in the global geopolitical environment that may dampen the exports improvement going forward.”