Italy: Industrial output deteriorates in September
Industrial output was flat month-on-month in seasonally adjusted terms in September (August: +0.3% mom). Looking at the details of the release, manufacturing output increased at a softer rate in September, while mining and quarrying output accelerated. Meanwhile, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning output also expanded.
On an annual basis, industrial output fell 2.0% in September, moderating notably from August’s 4.2% fall. Meanwhile, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of industrial production coming in at minus 2.6% in September, down from August’s minus 2.4% reading.
Industrial production is expected to decline this year and bounce back, albeit only partially, in 2024 due to a recovery in exports fueled by Germany’s economic rebound.
Commenting on the outlook, Paolo Pizzoli, senior economist at ING, stated:
“Looking ahead, high-frequency confidence data for October suggests that manufacturing weakness will likely remain in place over the last quarter of 2023. Softening orders are reportedly weighing on current and expected production, pointing to a possible negative contribution of manufacturing to value added generation over the last quarter of 2023.”