Japan: Weak yen pushes up merchandise exports in July
Yen-denominated merchandise exports rose 10.3% in annual terms in July, up from June’s 5.4% rise. July’s result was the third-best since December 2022, and roughly in line with market expectations. Nonetheless, the value was inflated by the yen’s fall to a 38-year low: Yen-denominated merchandise imports also expanded sharply in July, by 16.6% on an annual basis (June: +3.2% yoy), marking the strongest result since January 2023.
Overall, the yen-denominated merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a JPY 0.6 trillion deficit in July (June 2024: JPY 0.2 trillion surplus; July 2023: JPY 0.1 trillion deficit).
Nomura analysts said:
“After adjusting for inflation and seasonality, we estimate that real goods exports were up 3.3% m-m in July 2024. July goods exports were 2.2% higher than the Apr–Jun average. […] We forecast real goods exports up 2.2% q-q and real exports of goods and services up 2.4% in the Jul–Sep GDP statistics.”