Malaysia: Merchandise exports decline in February
Merchandise exports declined 9.2% on an annual basis in February (January: +0.4% year-on-year). The decline reflected weaker shipments of manufactured and agricultural goods. The figure was influenced by strong seasonal effects, as the Lunar New Year festivities fell in February 2024 compared to January 2023. Meanwhile, merchandise imports fell 0.7% on an annual basis in February (January: +9.7% yoy).
As a result, the merchandise trade balance improved from the previous month, recording a USD 2.3 billion surplus in February (January 2024: USD 2.2 billion surplus; February 2023: USD 4.5 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend deteriorated, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 42.8 billion surplus in February, compared to the USD 45.0 billion surplus in January.
United Overseas Bank analysts Julia Goh and Loke Siew Ting commented on the outlook:
“Despite the marginal drop in February exports, cumulative January-February export performance of +3.9% y/y reinforces our view that a trade recovery is underway albeit bumpy. The performance in early 2024 would be somewhat choppy due to seasonality effects during the festive period as well as potential disruptions and delays from the Red Sea crisis. However, the continued strength in import demand particularly for the imports of intermediate goods presages a positive export trend in coming months.”