Moldova Economic Outlook
A small, agriculture-dependent economy:
Moldova is one of Europe’s poorest countries, with an economy heavily reliant on agriculture, remittances, and trade with the EU. The country produces wine, fruits, and grains, exporting largely to Romania, Russia, and the EU. However, weak infrastructure, political instability, and limited industrial development hinder economic growth.
Strong reliance on remittances:With a large portion of Moldova's workforce employed abroad—mainly in the EU and Russia—remittances account for nearly 15% of GDP. This external income is crucial for household consumption but makes the economy vulnerable to external shocks and fluctuations in migrant labor demand.
EU integration and economic reforms:Moldova has pursued closer ties with the EU, signing an Association Agreement and gaining access to the European single market through the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). These agreements have helped boost exports and foreign investment. However, structural reforms, corruption, and weak governance remain challenges to long-term stability.
Economic outlook:Moldova’s growth prospects depend on continued European integration, economic diversification, and investment in infrastructure. While trade with the EU is expanding, the country remains vulnerable to energy dependence on Russia, regional security risks, and demographic decline due to emigration.
Moldova's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 16.6 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 6,647 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 2.9% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 61% of overall GDP, manufacturing 8%, other industrial activity 23%, and agriculture 8%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 85% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 18%, fixed investment 21%, and net exports -24%.International trade
In 2021, manufactured products made up 38% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 2%, food 57%, ores and metals 2% and agricultural raw materials 0%, with other categories accounting for 1% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 61% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 23%, food 14%, ores and metals 1% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other goods accounting for 0% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 3 billion in 2023, while total imports were USD 8 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 2.9% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in Moldova, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Moldova's fiscal deficit averaged 2.4% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 4.1% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Moldova's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 8.3% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Moldova inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Moldova's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 3.60%, down from 6.50% a decade earlier. See our Moldova monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the leu weakened by 15.2% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the leu, click here.
Economic situation in Moldova
After contracting for the first time in five quarters in Q3, GDP likely remained subdued in Q4. Retail sales lost traction from Q3, industrial production swung into contraction, and merchandise exports declined for the eighth consecutive quarter. Tuning to Q1 2025, higher energy prices following the expiration of the gas supply contract between Russia and Ukraine in January will be hampering industrial production and private spending; in the same month, inflation skyrocketed to the highest level in more than a year. In other news, in February, the EU pledged to set up a package worth almost USD 2 billion for Moldova to support reforms and economic growth in the country. Moreover, as tension rises in Eastern Europe, the EU committed roughly USD 60 million in 2025 defense spending for Moldova in March.Moldova Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.44 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 12 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Moldova in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 44 economic indicators for Moldova from a panel of 12 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Moldova economy. To download a sample report on the Moldova's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.