Norway: Economic activity growth loses pace in November
The Norwegian economy lost some steam halfway through the fourth quarter of 2023, when GDP growth waned to 1.2% in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms in November, decelerating from October’s 2.2% expansion. The economy contracted 0.3% in the September–November rolling quarter relative to the previous rolling quarter (June–August), improving from the 0.7% decline recorded in August–October.
Meanwhile, the mainland economy—which excludes hydrocarbons and related services—fell 0.2% in November (October: +0.3% s.a. mom). During the three months leading up to November, mainland GDP rose 0.1%, rebounding from the 0.1% contraction posted in August–October.
Domestically, the total GDP slowdown was driven by private consumption flatlining in November, deteriorating from the 0.8% month-on-month seasonally adjusted growth tallied in the prior month.
More positively, fixed investment returned to growth and increased 1.7%, improving from October’s 3.5% contraction. Similarly, government spending also rebounded in November, growing 0.2% (October: -0.6% s.a. mom).
Turning to the external sector, exports of goods and services expanded at a slower pace of 0.3% in November, down from the prior month’s 3.8% rise. Conversely, imports of goods and services fell a milder 0.7% (October: -3.1% s.a. mom).
Despite the economy shifting into a lower gear halfway through Q4, our panelists still see total GDP having rebounded in quarter-on-quarter terms in Q4 and exited the technical recession it entered in Q3. The Consensus is for GDP to expand in sequential terms throughout 2024.