Peru: Central Bank resumes easing cycle in April
At its 11 April meeting, the Central Bank of Peru (BCRP) cut its key policy interest rate to 6.00% from 6.25%, following March’s pause in its easing cycle.
The BCRP’s decision to resume its easing cycle was due to March’s inflationary moderation. Inflation fell to 3.0% in March from February’s 3.3%, while the Bank’s measure of core inflation remained unchanged at February’s 3.1% in March. Meanwhile, 12-month inflation expectations ticked down from 2.65% to 2.56% between February and March, moving closer to the mid-point of the Bank’s 1.0-3.0% target range for the fourth consecutive month. Moreover, the Bank expects inflation to continue its downtrend in the next few months.
The Bank did not give explicit forward guidance in its press release; it reiterated that future adjustments to the reference rate would be conditional on new information relating to inflation and its determinants. All our panelists see further rate cuts this year in line with a projected decline in inflation. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for 9 May.