Peru: Central Bank of Peru leaves rates unchanged in March
Latest bank decision: At its meeting on 13 March, the Central Bank of Peru decided to maintain the reference interest rate at 4.75%.
Monetary policy drivers: The BCRP likely decided to stay put to evaluate the impact of the significant monetary easing over the last 18 months, and in light of elevated external uncertainty amid a brewing global trade war.
Rate cuts expected to resume: Forward guidance was open-ended. Almost all of our panelists see further rate cuts between now and end-2025; inflation is expected to be in the lower part of the BCRP’s 1.0-3.0% target range in the coming months, providing the leeway for more monetary easing.
Panelist insight: On the outlook, Goldman Sachs’ Santiago Tellez said:
“We still see one final 25bp cut to 4.5% to be delivered in Q2. While we have less conviction on the timing, we view the materialization of this cut as mainly constrained by the external backdrop, not by domestic developments.”
In contrast, Itaú Unibanco analysts said:
“We believe that the BCRP is likely to hold its monetary policy rate at 4.75% amid a challenging external scenario and high trade uncertainty.”