Poland: GDP growth slows in the third quarter, but remains robust
According to a preliminary estimate, GDP growth lost steam in the third quarter, slowing to 5.1% year-on-year from 11.2% in the second quarter. On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth improved to 2.1% in Q3 compared to the previous period’s 1.8% increase, marking the best result since Q3 2020.
While a detailed breakdown of the result is yet to be released, available data points to robust household spending in the quarter amid a tightening labor market. Retail sales grew strongly in Q3, while consumer sentiment remained optimistic on average throughout the period. However, business sentiment deteriorated in the quarter, which likely weighed on investment activity. On the external front, goods exports slowed compared to Q2’s surge, although growth remained in double-digit figures amid healthy foreign demand dynamics.
More detailed data will be released on 30 November.
Commenting on the outlook for the economy, Rafal Benecki, chief Poland economist at ING, reflected:
“We still think Poland will see 5.4% GDP growth for the year in 2021 despite the ongoing pandemic. Even if the Delta variant slows growth to zero in the fourth quarter, we would still think 2021 growth would likely exceed 5.0%. We think qoq GDP should look better, given that the government is trying to avoid lockdowns even though the latest wave is strong.”