Poland: Economy records quickest upturn since Q3 2022 in Q2
According to a preliminary reading, GDP growth sped up to 3.2% year on year in the second quarter from 2.0% in the first quarter, marking the best result since Q3 2022. The print exceeded market expectations and was among the strongest in the EU.
On a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth improved to 1.5% in Q2, following the previous period’s 0.8% increase.
A full breakdown is not yet available, but the improvement likely stemmed from rising private and public consumption. Meanwhile, investment and exports likely remained downbeat as monetary conditions remained tight and EU activity continued to struggle.
A full breakdown will be released on 29 August.
ING analysts Adam Antoniak and Piotr Poplawski commented on the outlook:
“The better-than-expected second quarter Polish GDP result provides some comfort and we’re therefore maintaining our economic growth forecast for the whole of 2024 at 3.0% – even if the third quarter turns out to be slightly weaker than earlier forecasts. The biggest concern for the second half of the year is the outlook for both exports and investment.”