Poland: Inflation comes in at highest level since December 2023 in July
Inflation surged to 4.2% in July, following June’s 2.6%, surpassing the upper limit of the Central Bank’s inflation target range of 1.5–3.5% but below market expectations. July’s reading represented the highest inflation rate since December 2023. The increase was led by rising prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, which accelerated at the fastest rate since January, and stronger housing and utilities inflation.
However, the trend pointed down, with annual average inflation coming in at 4.8% in July (June: 5.4%).
Lastly, consumer prices rose 1.40% over the previous month in July, picking up from the 0.10% rise logged in June. July’s uptick marked the highest reading since January 2023.
Our Consensus expects inflation to average roughly a third of 2023’s level this year. That said, the reduction of energy subsidies launched in July, combined with an accommodative fiscal policy stance, is expected to intensify demand-side inflationary pressures.
Commenting on the release, ING’s Rafal Benecki and Adam Antoniak stated:
“The [next] peak in inflation will depend on whether the government decides to extend the energy shield measures into 2025. […] There may also be downward pressure on the gas and electricity tariffs adopted by the energy regulator in July. Theoretically, they should remain in effect until the end of 2025, but the wholesale prices continue to be significantly below the tariffs (today they are about 30% lower) and should distributors hedge at so low levels, regulator may propose lower tariffs.”
Jakub Cery, analyst at Erste Bank, added:
“Post July’s inflation jump, price growth is projected to rise towards 5% y/y, mainly due to the unfavorable base effect in H2 2024 and Q1 2025. Assuming no commodity market disruptions from the Middle East, Polish annual inflation is expected to peak in Q1 2025 and significantly drop in Q3. A moderate rate cut by the NBP could be feasible in Q2, provided the price trajectory avoids major upward shocks.”