Romania: GDP records fastest expansion since Q3 2021 in the third quarter
According to a second estimate, GDP growth accelerated to 4.7% year on year in the third quarter, from 3.9% in the second quarter. Q3’s reading marked the fastest growth since Q3 2021.
Private consumption growth fell to 3.1% in Q3, marking the weakest expansion since Q1 2021 (Q2: +7.9% yoy). Government spending bounced back, growing 3.8% in Q3 (Q2: -0.8% yoy). Meanwhile, fixed investment growth improved to 13.0% in Q3, from the 2.7% expansion recorded in the prior quarter.
Exports of goods and services growth improved to 13.3% in Q3 (Q2: +9.0% yoy). In addition, imports of goods and services growth sped up to 17.2% in Q3 (Q2: +7.2% yoy), marking the best performance in a year.
On a seasonally-adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, economic growth was stable at 1.3% in Q3.
On the outlook for Romania, the EIU said:
“The spillover effects of the war and the resulting energy crunch—with the euro zone contracting in 2023—will have a significant impact on the Romanian economy […]. Export growth will be negatively affected, and natural gas prices will remain well above pre-war levels. Private consumption will slow, but investment will be a bright spot, owing to inflows of EU funds under the Next Generation EU programme.”