Romania: Industrial output contracts at sharpest rate in three years in May
Industrial output collapsed 6.2% month on month in calendar and seasonally adjusted terms in May (April: -1.8% mom c.a. s.a). The result marked the worst reading since May 2021. The figure was largely driven by a bigger fall in manufacturing output, as it recorded the weakest reading in three years. In addition, mining and quarrying output deteriorated.
On a seasonally and calendar-adjusted annual basis, industrial production plummeted 6.5% in May, which was notably below April’s 3.0% expansion and marked the worst result since July 2020. Moreover, the trend pointed down, with the annual average variation of industrial production coming in at minus 1.6% in May, down from April’s minus 1.2%.
Our panelists expect industrial production to recover from 2023’s decline this year as external demand—particularly from the broader EU—strengthens. In turn, this should support an acceleration in GDP growth over 2024 as a whole.