Thailand: Inflation drops to lowest level since April in August
Inflation fell to 0.4% in August, below July’s 0.8%. August’s figure represented the lowest inflation rate since April. Looking at...
Inflation in Russia
From 2013 to 2022, Russia experienced high inflation, often exceeding 5%. The country's inflation was significantly influenced by geopolitical tensions, economic sanctions, currency volatility and fluctuations in global commodity prices. The Russian government and central bank implemented various measures to control inflation, but external factors and domestic economic challenges continued to exert upward pressure on prices.
Consumer price inflation in Russia averaged 7.2% in the ten years to 2022, below the Eastern European average of 7.7%. The 2022 average figure was 13.8%. For more inflation information, visit our dedicated page.
Russia Inflation Chart
Note: This chart displays Inflation Rate (CPI, annual variation in %) for Russia from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Russia Inflation Data
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 4.5 | 3.4 | 6.7 | 13.8 | 5.9 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, eop) | 3.0 | 4.9 | 8.4 | 11.9 | 7.4 |
| Inflation (PPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 3.2 | -3.4 | 24.6 | 12.1 | 5.3 |
Inflation hits 16-month high in June
Inflation came in at 8.6% in June, up from May’s 8.3%. June's figure marked the highest inflation rate since February 2023 but fell slightly short of market expectations. Looking at the details of the release, faster price pressures for food goods and services outweighed a slower increase in prices for non-food goods. As a result, overall price growth remained entrenched above the 4.0% target of the Central Bank (CBR) in June. Moreover, core inflation ticked up to 8.7% in June, outpacing both May’s 8.6% and June’s headline inflation. Accordingly, the trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 7.1% in June (May: 6.6%). Finally, consumer prices increased 0.64% over the previous month in June, moderating from the 0.74% increase seen in May.
Price pressures are forecast to recede from current levels on average by end-2024 on tight financing conditions. That said, rising inflation expectations, robust domestic demand growth and labor shortages will keep inflation above the CBR’s forecast of 6.5–7.0% this year and 4.0% target until at least 2027.
Clemens Grafe, analyst at Goldman Sachs, commented: “The headline print surprised our forecast to the downside, as we had incorporated an adjustment to utility prices which was due to come into effect in July but which the weekly inflation prints had already picked up on in June. We estimate that this could add up to 0.5pp to headline inflation and now expect this to be picked up in the July print next month instead.”
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Russian inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 30 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Russian inflation.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Russian inflation projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Russian inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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