Russia: Inflation remains steady in December
Consumer prices rose 0.82% over the previous month in December, which was below the 0.96% rise logged in November. December’s result marked the weakest reading since September.
Inflation was stable at November’s 8.4% in December. Meanwhile, the trend pointed up, with annual average inflation coming in at 6.7% in December (November: 6.4%). Lastly, core inflation ticked up to 8.9% in December, from November’s 8.7%.
Commenting on the result on the inflationary and monetary policy outlook, Artem Zaigrin, chief economist at SOVA Capital, noted:
“The high base effects start pushing the yoy inflation rate down. However, the main question is how fast the normalization process could occur. The current inflation run rate suggests that YE22 CPI could end the year at 5.1% yoy with an average rate of 6.8% yoy. If the first weeks of 2022 show few signs of deceleration, CBR will likely tighten the stance more, by 50bs to 9.00%, with risks of more extensive hikes skewed to an upside.”