Serbia: GDP growth ticks up in Q4
According to a flash estimate, GDP growth accelerated to 3.8% year on year in Q4 2023 from 3.6% in the third quarter. The print was broadly in line with market expectations.
Absent a detailed breakdown, monthly data suggests that private consumption led the improvement, as retail sales rebounded in the quarter amid lower price pressures. On the flip side, softer growth in industrial output likely capped the overall improvement. Lastly, trade data hints at a weaker contribution from the external sector: Merchandise exports fell at a faster clip, while the downturn in imports softened.
A full breakdown is set to be published on 29 February.
Mate Jelic, analyst at Erste Bank, commented on the outlook:
“Consumption should become the main driver of GDP growth in 2024, as disinflation and wage growth boosts real disposable income and credit conditions improve. Moderate boost to growth is expected from the investment side as well. The new EU growth plan for the Western Balkans represents a unique and lucrative opportunity for Serbia to make decisive steps towards EU accession and frontload some of the benefits of EU membership.”