Serbia: Incumbent victory spells policy continuity
On 17 December, the country will head to snap parliamentary elections. The vote was set to be held by 30 April 2026, but recent developments prompted President Aleksandar Vucic to call an early election. Two mass shootings in May triggered a chain of widespread protests against the government and state-controlled media. Moreover, the recent escalation of tensions with Kosovo—in September, an ethnic Serbian paramilitary group attacked a village in northern Kosovo—added further pressure.
Opinion polls indicate that the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) will achieve a comfortable victory. That said, the party has lost significant ground in recent months, and achieving an absolute majority is off the cards. In this election, the SNS faces a stronger opposition: A multitude of parties have unified under the Serbia Against Violence coalition. Against this backdrop, the SNS will need to form a coalition in Parliament, which will most likely include current partners the Socialist Party of Serbia and United Serbia, and could potentially require the addition of minority right-wing nationalist parties.
The extension of the SNS’s rule should ensure the prolongation of pro-market economic policies. The country is set to maintain fiscal prudence, in line with its IMF stand-by arrangement. Moreover, it is likely to privatize several public companies. On the external front, Serbia will continue trying to attract foreign investment and strengthen bilateral ties; recent economic and political agreements with China and ASEAN suggest that the country’s focus is broadening out from Europe. Meanwhile, Serbia will continue its balancing act between the EU and Russia. While maintaining ties with Russia bodes well for energy security, it could hamper the country’s EU accession prospects—which the majority of Serbians deem beneficial for the country.
In the improbable event that the opposition wins the elections, we would expect the country to lean closer to the EU and shift towards more interventionist economic policies, including progressive taxation, pro-environment policies and greater investments in healthcare and education.
The extension of the SNS’s rule should ensure the prolongation of pro-market economic policies. The country is set to maintain fiscal prudence, in line with its IMF stand-by arrangement. Moreover, it is likely to privatize several public companies. On the external front, Serbia will continue trying to attract foreign investment and strengthen bilateral ties; recent economic and political agreements with China and ASEAN suggest that the country’s focus is broadening out from Europe. Meanwhile, Serbia will continue its balancing act between the EU and Russia. While maintaining ties with Russia bodes well for energy security, it could hamper the country’s EU accession prospects—which the majority of Serbians deem beneficial for the country.
In the improbable event that the opposition wins the elections, we would expect the country to lean closer to the EU and shift towards more interventionist economic policies, including progressive taxation, pro-environment policies and greater investments in healthcare and education.
Analysts at the EIU commented on the impact of snap elections on relationships with the EU:
“The perceived misuse of the electoral process will not impress the EU, which Serbia still hopes to join. The legal grounds for calling early elections are shaky, as this normally follows a breakdown of parliament. As the president, who is supposed to be above party politics, Mr Vucic cannot lead the SNS electoral list, but will do. The ruling party also dominates the media, and the opposition has little access.”