Sweden: Riksbank extends monetary policy easing cycle in November
50 basis point cut meets market expectations: At its meeting on 6 November, the Riksbank decided to cut the policy rate by 50 basis points to 2.75%. This followed September’s 25 basis point cut and had been priced in by markets.
Bank seeks to kickstart economic recovery: The Bank once again aimed to support household budgets and investment against a backdrop of weak economic growth; the Riksbank highlighted rising risks to the growth outlook, including elevated geopolitical tensions, the outcome of the recent U.S. elections and a protracted malaise in global manufacturing production. Meanwhile, the Bank noted that inflation has continued to decline to levels it deems compatible with its 2.0% target due to lower-than-expected energy prices. Moreover, it assessed that inflationary risks have diminished and that long-term inflation expectations are firmly anchored around its target, allowing the Bank to continue easing its stance.
Loosening cycle to continue in 2025: The Central Bank stated that “to further support economic activity, the policy rate needs to be cut somewhat faster than was assessed in September”, envisaging further cuts as early as December and through H1 2025 should the outlook for inflation and economic activity remain unchanged. That said, the Riksbank’s forward guidance turned slightly more hawkish than in September, noting a rising level of uncertainty relating to geopolitical tensions and the krona’s weakness and suggesting upside risks to these policy rate projections; in a subsequent statement, Governor Erik Thedeen noted that “if the situation changes, it could mean higher or lower rates”.
Around half of our panelists have penciled in another 25 basis point reduction at the Riksbank’s last meeting of 2024 on 18 December—with the decision to be announced the following day—while others forecast the Bank to stand pat; the Riksbank is then expected to resume its easing stance in 2025.
Panelist insight: Analysts at Swedbank commented:
“There is the possibility of a temporarily higher inflation rate in November considering that seasonal sales begin later than last year, but this is the kind of variation in inflation that the Riksbank should be able to disregard and instead focus on the weak economy at the December meeting. We are therefore maintaining our forecast that the Riksbank will cut the policy rate by 25 basis points at its next meeting in December and subsequently continue cutting to 2% in the first half of 2025.”
Las Olsen, chief economist at Danske Bank, said:
“The Riksbank highlighted uncertainty around the economic recovery, international developments on economic policies (i.e. the US election), geopolitics and the SEK. We continue to expect 25bp cuts over the next three meetings and finally reaching an endpoint of 1.75% by June, but also admit that the uncertainty looking into next year is high.”