Switzerland: KOF economic barometer drops to over four-year low in November
The KOF economic barometer—a leading composite indicator for the Swiss economy, which forecasts a six-month period—fell to 93.0 points in November from October’s revised 94.8 (previously reported: 94.7), which marked the worst result since April 2015. Consequently, the indicator remained well below the series’ long-run average of 100 points, suggesting the economy will expand at a weaker pace in the short-term than its 10-year average rate.
The decline in November came amid unfavorable dynamics in the banking and insurance sector, and accommodation and food services sector. Moreover, indicators for foreign demand and other services also deteriorated. On the other hand, developments in the manufacturing sector were relatively unchanged from the prior month, with a more pessimistic outlook outweighing better prospects for exports and the business situation.
Amid intensifying global trade tensions and weak momentum in the Euro area, the KOF indicator has remained entrenched below the 100-point threshold the whole of this year, pointing to weak economic growth towards the end of 2019 and into 2020.