Taiwan: Merchandise exports slide in May
Merchandise exports dived 14.1% in annual terms in May, on the heels of April’s 13.3% fall. Exports of electronics, metal, machinery and plastics all saw sharp contractions, with trade to China and ASEAN weakening the most. Meanwhile, merchandise imports slid 21.7% over the same month last year in May (April: -20.2% yoy), marking the weakest reading since September 2015. Lower international commodity prices compared to last year, together with lower demand for inputs from the semiconductor industry, explain the decline.
As a result, the merchandise trade balance deteriorated from the previous month, recording a USD 4.9 billion surplus in May (April 2023: USD 6.7 billion surplus; May 2022: USD 2.1 billion surplus). Lastly, the trend improved, with the 12-month trailing merchandise trade balance recording a USD 49.6 billion surplus in May, compared to the USD 46.8 billion surplus in April.
Looking ahead, the finance ministry reportedly expects a further double-digit decline in exports in June. The Consensus among our analysts is that exports will only return to growth in Q4, aided by a pick-up in demand and a more favorable base of comparison.