UAE Economic Outlook
A diversified Gulf economy with global influence:
The UAE has one of the most diversified economies in the Gulf, with a strong focus on trade, tourism, and financial services alongside its oil and gas sector. Dubai serves as a global hub for commerce, logistics, and real estate, while Abu Dhabi remains the country’s energy and investment powerhouse. This economic mix has allowed the UAE to remain resilient even amid oil price fluctuations.
Financial and tourism sectors driving growth:The UAE has positioned itself as a leading financial and investment destination, attracting multinational corporations and high-net-worth individuals with its business-friendly policies and low tax rates. The tourism sector, bolstered by attractions like the Burj Khalifa, Expo 2020, and luxury resorts, continues to contribute significantly to GDP. The country has also made strides in technology, AI, and renewable energy investments.
Labor market and policy reforms:The UAE has undertaken significant labor and visa reforms to attract skilled expatriates, including long-term residency programs such as the Golden Visa. However, reliance on foreign labor, particularly in construction and services, presents challenges in balancing local employment needs with economic growth. Additionally, government initiatives to increase Emirati workforce participation in the private sector have had mixed success.
UAE’s economic outlook:The UAE economy is expected to expand steadily, supported by strong trade, tourism, and financial services. Continued investment in green energy, technology, and innovation will help reduce reliance on hydrocarbons. However, maintaining global competitiveness in a shifting economic landscape and addressing long-term workforce sustainability remain key challenges.
The UAE's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 514 billion in 2023.
GDP per capita of USD 48,136 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 3.2% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 48% of overall GDP, manufacturing 10%, other industrial activity 41%, and agriculture 1%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 40% of GDP in 2020, government consumption 14%, fixed investment 23%, and net exports 23%.International trade
In 2020, manufactured products made up 10% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 73%, food 3%, ores and metals 5% and agricultural raw materials 0%, with other categories accounting for 9% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 51% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 5%, food 6%, ores and metals 2% and agricultural raw materials 0%, with other goods accounting for 36% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 323 billion in 2021, while total imports were USD 244 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 3.2% in the decade to 2023. To read more about GDP growth in the UAE, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
UAE's fiscal surplus averaged 2.1% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 2.5% in the decade to 2023. For more information on UAE's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 1.5% in the decade to 2023. Go to our UAE inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
The UAE monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 4.40%, up from 1.00% a decade earlier. See our UAE monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the dirham stayed on the same level vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the dirham, click here.
Economic situation in The UAE
GDP growth slowed to the 10-year pre-pandemic average of 3.8% last year, according to our Consensus Forecast. Were it not for OPEC+ curbs on crude oil production, the economy would have expanded more. Turning to Q1 2025, OPEC+ curbs remain in place, and with the base of comparison turning less favorable—readings for year-on-year crude oil output growth have tended to improve since August 2023—petroleum output is likely to be broadly stagnant in annual terms. In January, crude oil eked out 0.2% growth, the weakest in nine months. That said, the non-oil private sector likely remains vibrant, aided by lower interest rates and the government’s diversification push, with its business conditions improving at a rate near December’s nine-month high in both January and February.UAE Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.50 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 23 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for UAE in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 50 economic indicators for UAE from a panel of 23 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the UAE economy. To download a sample report on the UAE's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.