Ukraine: National Bank of Ukraine stands pat in September
Latest bank decision: At its meeting on 19 September, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) decided to keep its key policy rate unchanged at 13.00% for the second consecutive meeting, in line with market expectations. That said, it adjusted the parameters of other monetary policy instruments, cutting interest rates on three-month certificates of deposit to 15.50% and decreasing refinancing loan rates to 16.00%. Additionally, the NBU announced it would raise reserve requirement ratios by 5.00 percentage points effective 11 October.
Monetary policy drivers: The NBU stated that its decision to maintain the key policy rate was aimed at bringing inflation to the 5.0% target in the years ahead and supporting the hryvnia. In August, inflation rose to 7.5% due to a reduced harvest, the recent weakening of the hryvnia and increased energy, wage and raw material costs for business. In addition, public expenditure will continue growing next year, putting further pressure on price stability. Uncertainty regarding foreign aid also drove the Bank’s decision to stand pat.
Policy outlook: The NBU indicated it would “continue to flexibly adapt its monetary policy if macroeconomic indicators deviate from expectations and if the balance of risks to inflation, the FX market’s sustainability, and economic development changes significantly”. The majority of our panelists expect the policy rate to remain unchanged by year-end, while the rest expect between 50–200 basis point cuts. Higher-than-expected inflation, a deterioration in the military situation and potentially waning international aid inflows pose upside risks.
The Bank will reconvene on 31 October.