United Kingdom: Economic activity remains unchanged in July
GDP was flat in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms in July, which matched the previous month’s figure and undershot market expectations. That said, July was still the seventh straight month in which output has not fallen. On a rolling quarterly basis, GDP rose 0.5% in May–July, which was below April–June’s 0.6% expansion.
In July, growth in services was offset by contractions in industry and construction.
On the reading, Nomura analysts said:
“What are the takeaways from [the July] figures? Clearly they were weaker than expected, but: a) these numbers can be volatile, so a 0.2pp miss isn’t too surprising, and b) they continue the string of no GDP declines this year, and seven months with no decline is highly unusual for what is a volatile monthly GDP series. GDP is now up 1.4% since December 2023, with the first half of the year representing the fastest growth in G7.”