United Kingdom: Labor market performs well in Q4
According to the ONS, in September–November the unemployment rate registered 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous rolling quarter. Experimental data for December showed that employment rose by 184,000 from November, while job vacancies were at a record high in the three months to December. The data thus suggests a negligible impact from the end of the government’s wage subsidy scheme (furlough) and surging Covid-19 cases. That said, real wage growth in the three months to November was minimal amid high inflation.
On the latest reading and the implications for monetary policy, George Buckley, economist at Nomura, commented:
“Today marked another strong labour market report, with payrolls up solidly, vacancies reaching another record high, the unemployment rate closing in on its pre-pandemic level [and] redundancies at an all-time lows. […] With another generally decent labour market report in the bag, we continue to think the Bank of England will hike rates once again—this time by 25bp—at its 3 February meeting.”