Uzbekistan Economic Outlook
Central Asia’s rising economy:
Uzbekistan, the most populous country in Central Asia, has been one of the region’s fastest-growing economies in recent years. Following the economic liberalization initiated by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in 2016, Uzbekistan has opened up to foreign investment, streamlined regulations, and pursued privatization of state-owned enterprises. GDP growth has remained strong, averaging around 5–6% annually, driven by manufacturing, agriculture, and services. The government aims to diversify the economy away from its traditional reliance on commodity exports, including gold, natural gas, and cotton.
Key industries and trade partnerships:Uzbekistan is a major producer of gold, ranking among the world's top 10, and also possesses significant reserves of copper, uranium, and natural gas. The country has long been reliant on exports of natural resources, but recent government efforts have focused on expanding value-added industries such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, and automotive production. Trade relations have been strengthening, particularly with China, Russia, and Turkey, while Uzbekistan has sought greater integration with global markets, including the WTO accession process. The country has also increased connectivity through regional infrastructure projects, including participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Challenges:Despite strong growth, Uzbekistan faces structural challenges, including a state-dominated banking sector, high youth unemployment, and a business environment that, while improving, still has bureaucratic hurdles. Inflation has been a persistent concern, hovering around 10% in recent years, partly due to subsidy cuts and currency liberalization. Additionally, while privatization efforts are underway, many key industries remain under state control, limiting competition and efficiency. The country also faces demographic pressures, with a rapidly growing population requiring more job creation to prevent social discontent.
Uzbekistan’s economic outlook:Uzbekistan’s economy is expected to remain one of the fastest-growing in Central Asia over the coming years, supported by economic reforms, infrastructure investments, and expanding trade ties. The government’s focus on privatization and attracting foreign investment will be crucial in sustaining growth and increasing economic diversification. However, risks remain, including external vulnerabilities from commodity price swings and geopolitical uncertainties in the region. If reform momentum continues and institutional capacity improves, Uzbekistan could position itself as a key economic hub in Central Asia, offering opportunities for investment and industrial development.
Uzbekistan's Macroeconomic Analysis:
Nominal GDP of USD 114.9 billion in 2024.
GDP per capita of USD 3,113 compared to the global average of USD 10,589.
Average real GDP growth of 5.9% over the last decade.
Sector Analysis
In 2022, services accounted for 41% of overall GDP, manufacturing 19%, other industrial activity 17%, and agriculture 23%. Looking at GDP by expenditure, private consumption accounted for 60% of GDP in 2023, government consumption 16%, fixed investment 43%, and net exports -19%.International trade
In 2021, manufactured products made up 35% of total merchandise exports, mineral fuels 4%, food 9%, ores and metals 8% and agricultural raw materials 1%, with other categories accounting for 43% of the total. In the same period, manufactured products made up 77% of total merchandise imports, mineral fuels 7%, food 11%, ores and metals 2% and agricultural raw materials 2%, with other goods accounting for 1% of the total. Total exports were worth USD 20 billion in 2023, while total imports were USD 34 billion.Main Economic Indicators
Economic growthThe economy recorded average annual growth of 5.9% in the decade to 2024. To read more about GDP growth in Uzbekistan, go to our dedicated page.
Fiscal policy
Uzbekistan's fiscal deficit averaged 0.7% of GDP in the decade to 2023. Find out more on our dedicated page.
Unemployment
The unemployment rate averaged 7.3% in the decade to 2023. For more information on Uzbekistan's unemployment click here.
Inflation
Inflation averaged 11.6% in the decade to 2024. Go to our Uzbekistan inflation page for extra insight.
Monetary Policy
Uzbekistan's monetary policy rate ended 2024 at 13.50%, up from 10.00% a decade earlier. See our Uzbekistan monetary policy page for additional details.
Exchange Rate
From end-2014 to end-2024 the sum weakened by 81.1% vs the U.S. dollar. For more info on the sum, click here.
Economic situation in Uzbekistan
The economy likely started 2025 on solid footing, after having expanded 6.5% in 2024 year on year. Compared to 2024, in January, construction activity accelerated, and external trade growth almost doubled thanks to surging exports growth. That said, retail sales expanded at a slightly softer pace and industrial output lost some steam due to softer growth in manufacturing. In other news, in late February, Uzbekistan launched a second mission under a special program run by the IMF and the World Bank to assess the country’s financial system. The program could lead to reforms in the sector and support investor sentiment. Additionally, the country recently made strides in broadening its trade links: In February, Pakistan and Uzbekistan agreed to boost bilateral trade to USD 4 billion in the next four years through greater cooperation in commerce, energy, tourism and trade.Uzbekistan Economic Forecasts
Projections out to 2034.44 indicators covered including both annual and quarterly frequencies.
Consensus Forecasts based on a panel of 15 expert analysts.
Want to get insight on the economic outlook for Uzbekistan in the coming years? FocusEconomics collects projections out to 2034 on 44 economic indicators for Uzbekistan from a panel of 15 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts, and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. This means you avoid the risk of relying on out of date, biased or outlier forecasts. Our Consensus Forecasts can be visualized in whichever way best suits your needs, including via interactive online dashboards , direct data delivery and executive-style reports which combine analysts' projections with timely written analysis from our in-house team of economists on the latest developments in the Uzbekistan economy. To download a sample report on the Uzbekistan's economy, click here. To get in touch with our team for more information, fill in the form at the bottom of this page.
Uzbekistan Economic Indicators
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (million) | 33.9 | 34.6 | 35.3 | 36.0 | 36.9 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 66.4 | 77.3 | 90.1 | 102.6 | 114.9 |
| GDP per capita (USD) | 1,957 | 2,237 | 2,554 | 2,847 | 3,113 |
| GDP (EUR bn) | 58.0 | 65.4 | 85.5 | 94.8 | 106.3 |
| GDP per capita (EUR) | 1,710 | 1,893 | 2,424 | 2,633 | 2,878 |
| GDP (UZS tn) | 668 | 821 | 996 | 1,204 | 1,455 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 12.3 | 22.8 | 21.3 | 21.0 | 20.8 |
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.6 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 6.5 |
| Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) | -2.9 | -4.1 | -3.7 | -4.0 | - |
| Public Debt (% of GDP) | 33.7 | 31.7 | 30.5 | 32.5 | 34.3 |
| Inflation (CPI, ann. var. %, aop) | 13.0 | 10.9 | 11.4 | 10.0 | 9.6 |
| Refinancing Rate (%, eop) | 14.00 | 14.00 | 15.00 | 14.00 | 13.50 |
| Exchange Rate (UZS per USD, eop) | 10,478 | 10,786 | 11,252 | 12,340 | 12,896 |
| Exchange Rate (UZS per USD, aop) | 10,067 | 10,616 | 11,053 | 11,743 | 12,654 |
| Exchange Rate (UZS per EUR, eop) | 12,823 | 12,266 | 12,006 | 13,630 | 13,420 |
| Exchange Rate (UZS per EUR, aop) | 11,476 | 12,549 | 11,618 | 12,696 | 13,689 |
| Current Account Balance (USD bn) | -3.0 | -4.9 | -2.8 | -7.8 | -6.1 |
| Current Account Balance (% of GDP) | -4.6 | -6.3 | -3.2 | -7.6 | -5.3 |
| Merchandise Trade Balance (USD bn) | -6.2 | -8.8 | -11.7 | -14.9 | -13.9 |
| Merchandise Exports (USD bn) | 12.8 | 14.1 | 16.6 | 19.6 | 19.0 |
| Merchandise Imports (USD bn) | 19.0 | 22.9 | 28.3 | 34.5 | 33.0 |
| Merchandise Exports (ann. var. %) | -7.7 | 10.2 | 17.7 | 17.8 | -3.1 |
| Merchandise Imports (ann. var. %) | -10.1 | 20.3 | 23.6 | 21.8 | -4.4 |
| Foreign Direct Investment (USD bn) | 1.7 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | - |
| External Debt (USD bn) | 33.7 | 40.6 | 49.0 | 59.2 | - |
| External Debt (% of GDP) | 50.8 | 52.5 | 54.4 | 57.7 | - |