Inflation decelerates to near two-year low in September

Latest reading: Consumer prices rose 18.2% on a year-on-year basis in September, down from 18.9% in August, moderating for the fourteenth consecutive month and reaching the joint-lowest level since October 2023. Relative to the prior month's figures, there were lower price pressures for food and beverages (+18.5% in year-on-year terms vs +19.2% in August), health (+22.1% vs +23.7% in August), housing, water electricity and fuel (+16.2% vs +17.1% in August) and clothing (+18.4% vs +19.6% in August). In contrast, price pressures increased for transport (+21.4% vs +21.1% in August). Finally, consumer prices rose at a slower pace of 1.01% in month-on-month terms in September, following a 1.09% rise in the previous month.

Outlook: Our Consensus is for inflation to maintain its downward trend all the way through Q4 2026. For 2025 as a whole, inflation will cool from 2024. Improved food supply and still-elevated interest rates will more than offset upward pressures from the removal of fuel subsidies, part of the IMF-backed reforms to strengthen public finances ahead of substantial debt repayments. Looking further ahead, our panelists see average inflation gradually decelerating through 2029 and stabilizing in 2030. Tighter-than-expected monetary conditions pose a downside risk.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 14 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Angolan inflation.

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