Inflation nears two-year low but remains among fastest in the region in May

Latest reading: Inflation fell to 20.7% in May from April’s 22.3%, marking a near two-year low. Resumed Central Bank intervention in FX markets has supported the kwanza, tempering imported inflation. Domestically, elevated interest rates and improved consumer goods supply have contributed to a continued decline in inflation. That said, the paring back of fuel subsidies likely stemmed the overall decline in inflation and should keep it among the highest in Sub-Saharan Africa ahead. As a result, the trend was eased, with annual average inflation edging down to 26.9% in May from April’s 27.8%. Lastly, consumer prices rose 1.17% over the previous month in May, which was below the 1.34% increase logged in April and marked the lowest result since May 2023.

Panelist insight: Oxford Economics’ Gerrit van Rooyen commented: “Although inflation is starting to lose momentum, we have raised our forecast slightly. [...] The inflation outcome in the first four months of this year was slightly higher than we expected, hence we raised our 2025 forecast marginally. With the kwanza having weakened to over Kz900/$ since H2 2024, disinflation has slowed somewhat at the start of this year. Nevertheless, our view remains that inflation will continue to subside in 2025, thanks to favourable base effects and muted pressure from global commodity prices.”

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Angolan inflation projections for the next ten years from a panel of 13 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable inflation forecast available for Angolan inflation.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Angolan inflation projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of Angolan inflation forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.