GDP reading: GDP rebounded 3.9% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis in the third quarter, contrasting the 1.7%...
Economic Growth in Brazil
Brazil's GDP growth between 2013 and 2022 was characterized by economic turbulence and modest recoveries. The country entered a severe recession in 2015-2016, driven by political instability and declining commodity prices. Subsequent years saw gradual recovery, although growth remained sluggish. The COVID-19 pandemic brought another downturn, but the economy showed resilience in 2021-2022, partly due to commodity exports and strong fiscal stimulus.
The Brazilian economy recorded an average growth rate of 0.6% in the decade to 2022, below the 1.3% average for Latin America. In 2022, Brazil's real GDP growth was 2.9%. For more GDP information, visit our dedicated page.
Brazil GDP Chart
Note: This chart displays Economic Growth (GDP, annual variation in %) for Brazil from 2014 to 2023.
Source: Macrobond.
Brazil GDP Data
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Economic Growth (GDP, ann. var. %) | 1.2 | -3.3 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 3.2 |
| GDP (USD bn) | 1,873 | 1,477 | 1,670 | 1,952 | 2,173 |
| GDP (BRL bn) | 7,389 | 7,610 | 9,012 | 10,080 | 10,856 |
| Economic Growth (Nominal GDP, ann. var. %) | 5.5 | 3.0 | 18.4 | 11.8 | 7.7 |
Economic growth smashes expectations in Q2
GDP reading: The Brazilian economy stepped on the gas in the second quarter of 2024, with GDP growth accelerating to 1.4% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter basis, improving from an upwardly revised 1.0% in the first quarter and marking the best result since Q4 2020. On an annual basis, economic growth accelerated to 3.3% in Q2, following the previous quarter's 2.5% growth and marking the best result in a year. Both the quarterly and annual upturns surprised markets on the upside.
Drivers: The quarterly acceleration was due to government spending speeding up to a 1.3% expansion in Q2 (Q1: +0.1% s.a. qoq). Less positively, private consumption growth waned to 1.3% in Q2 compared to a 2.5% expansion in Q1. Similarly, fixed investment growth slowed to 2.1% in Q2, following 3.8% logged in the prior quarter. On the external front, exports of goods and services increased 1.4% in the second quarter, which was above the first quarter's 0.4% expansion. Meanwhile, imports of goods and services growth sped up to 7.6% in Q2 (Q1: +4.5% s.a. qoq), marking the strongest reading since Q1 2021.
GDP outlook: Our panelists anticipate sequential GDP growth to decelerate to roughly a third from H1 in H2. Private spending should remain supportive of growth; our Consensus is for average inflation to hover around H1 levels in H2, and for the unemployment rate to fall. Additional extreme weather events, as well as election-related uncertainty surrounding the municipal elections in October, pose downside risks.
Consensus Forecasts and Projections for the next ten years
How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects Brazilian GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 49 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for Brazilian GDP.
Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Brazilian GDP projections.
Want to get access to the full dataset of Brazilian GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.
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