Central Bank of Egypt holds fire again in October

Fourth hold in a row anticipated by markets: At its meeting on 17 October, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) decided to leave the overnight deposit rate at a record high of 27.25%. The hold was the fourth in a row, followed a cumulative hike of 1,900 basis points since March 2022, and had been priced in by markets.

Subsidy cuts slow disinflation: The Bank noted that, while both headline and core inflation remain on an apparent downward trend, the speed of the moderation has been restrained by the withdrawal of a range of subsidies as part of the IMF financing deal. The Bank said that it expects inflation to stabilize around September’s 26.4% in October–December 2024 before declining in January–March 2025, and that risks to the inflation outlook remain skewed to the upside. Regarding activity, the CBE released data showing that annual GDP growth accelerated to 2.4% in April–June from the prior three months’ 2.2% rise. Moreover, high-frequency data signals that economic activity in July–September 2024 recovered further, giving it the wiggle room to keep rates high.

Most expect no further cuts in 2024: The Central Bank provided no specific forward guidance, saying that it remained data-dependent. The Bank’s next meeting is set for 21 November. Over half of our panelists expect the CBE to stay put at its last two meetings in 2024; the rest see room for 100–200 basis points of cuts. In 2025, all panelists see the CBE cutting rates.

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