GDP growth records fastest upturn since Q4 2023 in the third quarter

GDP reading: GDP growth improved moderately to 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted quarter on quarter basis in the third quarter, up from 0.2% in the second quarter and marking the best result since Q4 2023. Q3’s reading was slightly above market expectations and the Euro area average. The Olympic and Paralympic Games in Paris gave the economy an artificial boost, as broadcasting rights and ticketing sales lifted private consumption of services. On an annual basis, economic growth improved to 1.3% in Q3, compared to the previous period's 1.0% increase.

Drivers: Look at expenditure components, private consumption increased 0.5% in the third quarter, which was above the second quarter's flat reading. Around half of this growth was attributed to the effect of the Olympics. Government consumption saw a 0.5% expansion in Q3 (Q2: +0.5% s.a. qoq). Meanwhile, fixed investment contracted 0.8%. On the external front, exports of goods and services contracted 0.5% in Q3. (Q2: +0.5% s.a. qoq). In addition, imports of goods and services deteriorated, contracting 0.7% in Q3 (Q2: +0.1% s.a. qoq). The net effect was that the external sector contributed positively to GDP.

GDP outlook: The economy is projected to slow to a near-halt in Q4 as the Olympics boost disappears. That said, looser monetary policy should provide some support to activity.

How should you choose a forecaster if some are too optimistic while others are too pessimistic? FocusEconomics collects French GDP projections for the next ten years from a panel of 52 analysts at the leading national, regional and global forecast institutions. These projections are then validated by our in-house team of economists and data analysts and averaged to provide one Consensus Forecast you can rely on for each indicator. By averaging all forecasts, upside and downside forecasting errors tend to cancel each other out, leading to the most reliable GDP forecast available for French GDP.

Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our French GDP projections.

Want to get access to the full dataset of French GDP forecasts? Send an email to info@focus-economics.com.