Bank of Ghana holds fire in November

Easing cycle paused again: On 29 November, the Bank of Ghana (BOG) said that it had decided to maintain its policy rate at 27.00%. Market expectations had been split between a hold and a cut.

Inflation uptick calls for caution: The hold was driven by a sluggish pace of disinflation. Despite remaining lower than a year ago, inflation rose in September and October, driven by higher food prices and a weaker exchange rate. Moreover, the inflationary outlook deteriorated: The BOG now expects inflation to return to its 6.0–10.0% target band in Q4 2025, instead of in Q3 2025 as originally projected. Additionally, economic activity has improved, as indicated by high-frequency real sector indicators, and the banking sector is stable with sufficient capital buffers to withstand the impact of external debt restructuring.

Aggressive easing could resume in 2025: The BOG did not provide explicit forward guidance, leaving future moves open-ended. Our panelists see 400–900 basis points worth of reductions next year. The next meeting is scheduled for 21–24 January 2025, with the decision to be announced three days later.

Panelist insight: Goldman Sachs’ Andrew Matheny said: “With inflation having ticked up for the third consecutive month in November and the impact of previous FX depreciation on inflation still yet to fully pass-through, risks to our forecast for rate cuts in 2025Q1 are tilted to the hawkish side, despite a rally in the Cedi in the past month.”

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Download one of our sample reports to visualize what a Consensus Forecast is and see our Ghanaian interest rate projections.

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